A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he will come by train, bus, and scooter or by other means of transport are respectively 0.3, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.4. The probabilities that he will be late are, if he comes by train, bus and scooter respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When he arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he comes by scooter?
What is your opinion about being 'late'? Which life skills a person lacks by being 'late'?

Asked by Topperlearning User | 4th Jun, 2014, 01:23: PM

Expert Answer:

Let E be the event that the doctor visits the patient late and let A1, A2, A3, A4 be the events that the doctor comes by train, bus, scooter, and other means of transport respectively.

P(E | A1) = Probability that the doctor arriving late comes by train =
Similarly,
By Bayes" theorem,
P(A3 | E) = Probability that the doctor arriving late comes by scooter
 
Thus, the probability that the doctor arriving late comes by scooter is.

Being late, sometimes results in opportunity being missed. By being late, a person lacks responsibility and dedication to work.

Answered by  | 4th Jun, 2014, 03:23: PM